Crystal Ball 2000 Standard
is an easy-to-use simulation program that helps you analyze
the risks and uncertainties associated with your Microsoft
Excel spreadsheet models.
As a fully integrated Excel add-in program with its own
toolbar and menus, Crystal Ball picks up where spreadsheets
end by letting you perform Monte Carlo analysis (a standard
technique for simulating real-world situations involving
elements of uncertainty).
What is the likelihood of reaching a particular goal? What
are the critical factors affecting risk? The answer to these
and other common what-if scenarios can be determined
by assigning probability to unknown variables. Excel can't
handle the complexity of probability analysis, so you need
a better tool: Crystal Ball 2000.
Crystal Ball automates the cumbersome "what-if"
process using Monte Carlo simulation, by applying a range
of values or a probability distribution to each uncertain
variable.
The program generates random values from within the defined
probability ranges, and then recalculates the model literally
hundreds or thousands of times, storing the results of each
"what-if" scenario. This timesaving process alleviates
having to manually enter different scenarios over and over
again.
Monte Carlo Simulation Does: Calculates multiple scenarios
of a spreadsheet model automatically
Distribution Gallery Does: Provides an intuitive interface
for selecting model input variables; includes 16 discrete
and continuous distributions plus custom distribution
Forecast Charts Does: Graphically display simulation results
and statistics
Sensitivity and Tornado Analyses Does: Two separate methods
for identifying the most critical model input variables
Distribution Fitting Does: Uses historical data for defining
assumptions
Correlation Does: Models dependencies between uncertain
input variables
Charting and Reporting Does: Automates report generation,
includes the ability to overlay forecasts and to project
trends through time
Precision Control Does: Provides advanced simulation capabilities
Latin Hypercube Sampling Does: Alternative simulation method
to Monte Carlo
Data extraction Does: Exports data from Crystal Ball memory
CB Tools Does: Macro-driven tools that use Crystal Ball;
Includes scenario analysis, decision table, tornado chart,
correlation matrices, 2D-simulation, batch fit, and boot
strap