TimeTrends® Forecast
Warehouse is an open systems-compliant data management and
processing environment, offering all the necessary tools
to create, display and forecast time series data for your
products.
Forecast Administration:
ODBC-compliant, 32-bit application designed to run as a
multi-userprocessing environment under Windows 95/98 and
NT. Its purpose is to store and manage all forecast-related
information. Its primary function is to store time series
data, which can be obtained by querying corporate data sources
such as data warehouses or ERP systems. Data can be acquired
from other relational databases, but ASCII data from other
host systems can be used as well.
The system utilizes MS-Access or SQL Server as the relational
database for storage of forecast information, methods, overrides,
annotations, historical versions of forecasts, accuracy
calculations and more. Future versions, currently under
development, will utilize Oracle and other databases.
Forecast Warehouse provides users the ability to author
and execute SQL queries in the database. Create custom views
of the data, manipulate and sort fields, do multi-parameter
searches, and execute custom calculations into user-defined
fields. System Administrators can create additional user-defined
fields to store non-forecasted data or attributes such as
inventory, open order status, standard costs or other financial
data. Users can create custom calculations such as weeks'
supply, inventory stock-turns, standard cost of forecast
error, pro-forma revenue change, and so on.
Straightforward database navigation is provided via intuitive
"drag and drop" hierarchy structures. Multi-dimensional
views of the data can be shown graphically at the click
of the mouse. Users can create unlimited hierarchical aggregate
tables and perform batch re-forecasts.
In addition to forecasting, the system's data can be used
in a DRP/replenishment mode in order to provide suggested
re-order dates, suggested re-order quantities, projected
out-of stock dates, minimum/maximum inventory levels and
more.
The system can utilize data entry forms for forecast updating
by non-specialized end-users who do not require statistical
forecasting, or by remote users, using MS-Access, Lotus
Notes or Visual Basic forms. A form can be designed to contain
as much or as little data as you wish, whether Marketing
Intelligence or Sales Force opportunities for additional
analysis. A separate module is available for Internet access.
Forecast Creation:
Data types supported are weekly, monthly, 13-period, quarterly
or annually. The data can be viewed graphically or in spreadsheet-like
tables, which include historical data, trend, fitted and
seasonal information. The user can annotate the table on
a period by period basis and up to 8 tables at once.
A sophisticated mathematical engine offers 15 forecast
methods encompassing all phases of the product life cycle.
Trend extrapolation and curve fitting methods are included.
For novice users or erratic data, four simple or "naïve"
approaches are available, including a new item forecast.
The auto-select option automatically suggests the method
and parameters that offer the best fit.
Seasonal forecasts are calculated automatically and can
be used with any of the above mentioned methods. Standard
statistical measures are calculated on all forecasts to
allow more sophisticated users to judge the validity of
their assumptions. These measures include r-squared, MAD,
standard deviation and other standard measures.
Once a forecast has been generated, you can override the
forecast, either entirely or period by period and explain
exceptional historical demand. The forecast is delivered
as a visually effective presentation with reports using
high quality graphics.
Several data manipulation techniques enable you to transform
the data format in various ways. A "goal seek"
function lets you adjust forecasts in order to meet quotas,
by forcing the forecasts.